Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
