Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
